This week

SEP versus effective funds

FOMC year-end median federal funds versus the held H.15 effective federal funds rate. Official prints only.

FOMC SEP year-end median federal funds claims on this pack: 32 correct, 93 missed, 9 open as of . The latest held SEP median for year-end 2026 is 3.4 percent (meeting ). The Board H.15 effective federal funds rate is 3.63 percent as of . Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Summary of Economic Projections and H.15. Canonical: https://trackrecord.to/packs/sep-vs-reality. Not a hit rate. Not CME FedWatch. Not a FOMC forecast published by TrackRecord.

134

Correct, missed, and open

32 correct 93 missed 9 open

Correct, missed, and open counts. Not a hit rate. Methodology v0.1.

Unscored claims are not counted as misses. Horizon years after this calendar year stay in the officials list below, not in these three counts.

via TrackRecord

SEP medians versus effective funds

SEP year-end median at each meeting date (not a daily official print). Chart window: earliest SEP meeting through latest held H.15. Weekly last held print for the chart; daily prints stay on the series card.

  1. · year-end 2026 SEP median 3.6 percent · Correct · December EFFR 3.63 percent ()
  2. · year-end 2027 SEP median 3.4 percent · Open · December EFFR 3.63 percent ()
  3. · year-end 2025 SEP median 3.6 percent · Correct · December EFFR 3.64 percent ()
  4. · year-end 2026 SEP median 3.4 percent · Open · December EFFR 3.63 percent ()
  5. · year-end 2027 SEP median 3.1 percent · Open · December EFFR 3.63 percent ()
  6. · year-end 2028 SEP median 3.1 percent · Open · December EFFR 3.63 percent ()
  7. · year-end 2025 SEP median 3.6 percent · Correct · December EFFR 3.64 percent ()
  8. · year-end 2026 SEP median 3.4 percent · Open · December EFFR 3.63 percent ()
  9. · year-end 2027 SEP median 3.1 percent · Open · December EFFR 3.63 percent ()
  10. · year-end 2028 SEP median 3.1 percent · Open · December EFFR 3.63 percent ()
132 earlier SEP median rows
  1. · year-end 2015 SEP median 0.4 percent · Missed · December EFFR 0.2 percent ()
  2. · year-end 2016 SEP median 1.4 percent · Missed · December EFFR 0.55 percent ()
  3. · year-end 2017 SEP median 2.6 percent · Missed · December EFFR 1.33 percent ()
  4. · year-end 2018 SEP median 3.4 percent · Missed · December EFFR 2.4 percent ()
  5. · year-end 2015 SEP median 0.4 percent · Missed · December EFFR 0.2 percent ()
  6. · year-end 2016 SEP median 1.4 percent · Missed · December EFFR 0.55 percent ()
  7. · year-end 2017 SEP median 2.4 percent · Missed · December EFFR 1.33 percent ()
  8. · year-end 2018 SEP median 3.3 percent · Missed · December EFFR 2.4 percent ()
  9. · year-end 2016 SEP median 0.9 percent · Missed · December EFFR 0.55 percent ()
  10. · year-end 2017 SEP median 1.9 percent · Missed · December EFFR 1.33 percent ()
  11. · year-end 2018 SEP median 3.0 percent · Missed · December EFFR 2.4 percent ()
  12. · year-end 2016 SEP median 0.9 percent · Missed · December EFFR 0.55 percent ()
  13. · year-end 2017 SEP median 1.6 percent · Missed · December EFFR 1.33 percent ()
  14. · year-end 2018 SEP median 2.4 percent · Correct · December EFFR 2.4 percent ()
  15. · year-end 2016 SEP median 0.6 percent · Correct · December EFFR 0.55 percent ()
  16. · year-end 2017 SEP median 1.1 percent · Missed · December EFFR 1.33 percent ()
  17. · year-end 2018 SEP median 1.9 percent · Missed · December EFFR 2.4 percent ()
  18. · year-end 2019 SEP median 2.6 percent · Missed · December EFFR 1.55 percent ()
  19. · year-end 2016 SEP median 0.6 percent · Correct · December EFFR 0.55 percent ()
  20. · year-end 2017 SEP median 1.4 percent · Correct · December EFFR 1.33 percent ()
  21. · year-end 2018 SEP median 2.1 percent · Missed · December EFFR 2.4 percent ()
  22. · year-end 2019 SEP median 2.9 percent · Missed · December EFFR 1.55 percent ()
  23. · year-end 2017 SEP median 1.4 percent · Correct · December EFFR 1.33 percent ()
  24. · year-end 2018 SEP median 2.1 percent · Missed · December EFFR 2.4 percent ()
  25. · year-end 2019 SEP median 3.0 percent · Missed · December EFFR 1.55 percent ()
  26. · year-end 2017 SEP median 1.4 percent · Correct · December EFFR 1.33 percent ()
  27. · year-end 2018 SEP median 2.1 percent · Missed · December EFFR 2.4 percent ()
  28. · year-end 2019 SEP median 2.9 percent · Missed · December EFFR 1.55 percent ()
  29. · year-end 2017 SEP median 1.4 percent · Correct · December EFFR 1.33 percent ()
  30. · year-end 2018 SEP median 2.1 percent · Missed · December EFFR 2.4 percent ()
  31. · year-end 2019 SEP median 2.7 percent · Missed · December EFFR 1.55 percent ()
  32. · year-end 2020 SEP median 2.9 percent · Missed · December EFFR 0.09 percent ()
  33. · year-end 2017 SEP median 1.4 percent · Correct · December EFFR 1.33 percent ()
  34. · year-end 2018 SEP median 2.1 percent · Missed · December EFFR 2.4 percent ()
  35. · year-end 2019 SEP median 2.7 percent · Missed · December EFFR 1.55 percent ()
  36. · year-end 2020 SEP median 3.1 percent · Missed · December EFFR 0.09 percent ()
  37. · year-end 2018 SEP median 2.1 percent · Missed · December EFFR 2.4 percent ()
  38. · year-end 2019 SEP median 2.9 percent · Missed · December EFFR 1.55 percent ()
  39. · year-end 2020 SEP median 3.4 percent · Missed · December EFFR 0.09 percent ()
  40. · year-end 2018 SEP median 2.4 percent · Correct · December EFFR 2.4 percent ()
  41. · year-end 2019 SEP median 3.1 percent · Missed · December EFFR 1.55 percent ()
  42. · year-end 2020 SEP median 3.4 percent · Missed · December EFFR 0.09 percent ()
  43. · year-end 2018 SEP median 2.4 percent · Correct · December EFFR 2.4 percent ()
  44. · year-end 2019 SEP median 3.1 percent · Missed · December EFFR 1.55 percent ()
  45. · year-end 2020 SEP median 3.4 percent · Missed · December EFFR 0.09 percent ()
  46. · year-end 2021 SEP median 3.4 percent · Missed · December EFFR 0.07 percent ()
  47. · year-end 2018 SEP median 2.4 percent · Correct · December EFFR 2.4 percent ()
  48. · year-end 2019 SEP median 2.9 percent · Missed · December EFFR 1.55 percent ()
  49. · year-end 2020 SEP median 3.1 percent · Missed · December EFFR 0.09 percent ()
  50. · year-end 2021 SEP median 3.1 percent · Missed · December EFFR 0.07 percent ()
  51. · year-end 2019 SEP median 2.4 percent · Missed · December EFFR 1.55 percent ()
  52. · year-end 2020 SEP median 2.6 percent · Missed · December EFFR 0.09 percent ()
  53. · year-end 2021 SEP median 2.6 percent · Missed · December EFFR 0.07 percent ()
  54. · year-end 2019 SEP median 2.4 percent · Missed · December EFFR 1.55 percent ()
  55. · year-end 2020 SEP median 2.1 percent · Missed · December EFFR 0.09 percent ()
  56. · year-end 2021 SEP median 2.4 percent · Missed · December EFFR 0.07 percent ()
  57. · year-end 2019 SEP median 1.9 percent · Missed · December EFFR 1.55 percent ()
  58. · year-end 2020 SEP median 1.9 percent · Missed · December EFFR 0.09 percent ()
  59. · year-end 2021 SEP median 2.1 percent · Missed · December EFFR 0.07 percent ()
  60. · year-end 2022 SEP median 2.4 percent · Missed · December EFFR 4.33 percent ()
  61. · year-end 2019 SEP median 1.6 percent · Correct · December EFFR 1.55 percent ()
  62. · year-end 2020 SEP median 1.6 percent · Missed · December EFFR 0.09 percent ()
  63. · year-end 2021 SEP median 1.9 percent · Missed · December EFFR 0.07 percent ()
  64. · year-end 2022 SEP median 2.1 percent · Missed · December EFFR 4.33 percent ()
  65. · year-end 2020 SEP median 0.1 percent · Correct · December EFFR 0.09 percent ()
  66. · year-end 2021 SEP median 0.1 percent · Correct · December EFFR 0.07 percent ()
  67. · year-end 2022 SEP median 0.1 percent · Missed · December EFFR 4.33 percent ()
  68. · year-end 2020 SEP median 0.1 percent · Correct · December EFFR 0.09 percent ()
  69. · year-end 2021 SEP median 0.1 percent · Correct · December EFFR 0.07 percent ()
  70. · year-end 2022 SEP median 0.1 percent · Missed · December EFFR 4.33 percent ()
  71. · year-end 2023 SEP median 0.1 percent · Missed · December EFFR 5.33 percent ()
  72. · year-end 2020 SEP median 0.1 percent · Correct · December EFFR 0.09 percent ()
  73. · year-end 2021 SEP median 0.1 percent · Correct · December EFFR 0.07 percent ()
  74. · year-end 2022 SEP median 0.1 percent · Missed · December EFFR 4.33 percent ()
  75. · year-end 2023 SEP median 0.1 percent · Missed · December EFFR 5.33 percent ()
  76. · year-end 2021 SEP median 0.1 percent · Correct · December EFFR 0.07 percent ()
  77. · year-end 2022 SEP median 0.1 percent · Missed · December EFFR 4.33 percent ()
  78. · year-end 2023 SEP median 0.1 percent · Missed · December EFFR 5.33 percent ()
  79. · year-end 2021 SEP median 0.1 percent · Correct · December EFFR 0.07 percent ()
  80. · year-end 2022 SEP median 0.1 percent · Missed · December EFFR 4.33 percent ()
  81. · year-end 2023 SEP median 0.6 percent · Missed · December EFFR 5.33 percent ()
  82. · year-end 2021 SEP median 0.1 percent · Correct · December EFFR 0.07 percent ()
  83. · year-end 2022 SEP median 0.3 percent · Missed · December EFFR 4.33 percent ()
  84. · year-end 2023 SEP median 1.0 percent · Missed · December EFFR 5.33 percent ()
  85. · year-end 2024 SEP median 1.8 percent · Missed · December EFFR 4.33 percent ()
  86. · year-end 2021 SEP median 0.1 percent · Correct · December EFFR 0.07 percent ()
  87. · year-end 2022 SEP median 0.9 percent · Missed · December EFFR 4.33 percent ()
  88. · year-end 2023 SEP median 1.6 percent · Missed · December EFFR 5.33 percent ()
  89. · year-end 2024 SEP median 2.1 percent · Missed · December EFFR 4.33 percent ()
  90. · year-end 2022 SEP median 3.4 percent · Missed · December EFFR 4.33 percent ()
  91. · year-end 2023 SEP median 3.8 percent · Missed · December EFFR 5.33 percent ()
  92. · year-end 2024 SEP median 3.4 percent · Missed · December EFFR 4.33 percent ()
  93. · year-end 2022 SEP median 4.4 percent · Correct · December EFFR 4.33 percent ()
  94. · year-end 2023 SEP median 4.6 percent · Missed · December EFFR 5.33 percent ()
  95. · year-end 2024 SEP median 3.9 percent · Missed · December EFFR 4.33 percent ()
  96. · year-end 2025 SEP median 2.9 percent · Missed · December EFFR 3.64 percent ()
  97. · year-end 2022 SEP median 4.4 percent · Correct · December EFFR 4.33 percent ()
  98. · year-end 2023 SEP median 5.1 percent · Missed · December EFFR 5.33 percent ()
  99. · year-end 2024 SEP median 4.1 percent · Missed · December EFFR 4.33 percent ()
  100. · year-end 2025 SEP median 3.1 percent · Missed · December EFFR 3.64 percent ()
  101. · year-end 2023 SEP median 5.1 percent · Missed · December EFFR 5.33 percent ()
  102. · year-end 2024 SEP median 4.3 percent · Correct · December EFFR 4.33 percent ()
  103. · year-end 2025 SEP median 3.1 percent · Missed · December EFFR 3.64 percent ()
  104. · year-end 2023 SEP median 5.6 percent · Missed · December EFFR 5.33 percent ()
  105. · year-end 2024 SEP median 4.6 percent · Missed · December EFFR 4.33 percent ()
  106. · year-end 2025 SEP median 3.4 percent · Missed · December EFFR 3.64 percent ()
  107. · year-end 2023 SEP median 5.6 percent · Missed · December EFFR 5.33 percent ()
  108. · year-end 2024 SEP median 5.1 percent · Missed · December EFFR 4.33 percent ()
  109. · year-end 2025 SEP median 3.9 percent · Missed · December EFFR 3.64 percent ()
  110. · year-end 2026 SEP median 2.9 percent · Open · December EFFR 3.63 percent ()
  111. · year-end 2023 SEP median 5.4 percent · Correct · December EFFR 5.33 percent ()
  112. · year-end 2024 SEP median 4.6 percent · Missed · December EFFR 4.33 percent ()
  113. · year-end 2025 SEP median 3.6 percent · Correct · December EFFR 3.64 percent ()
  114. · year-end 2026 SEP median 2.9 percent · Open · December EFFR 3.63 percent ()
  115. · year-end 2024 SEP median 4.6 percent · Missed · December EFFR 4.33 percent ()
  116. · year-end 2025 SEP median 3.9 percent · Missed · December EFFR 3.64 percent ()
  117. · year-end 2026 SEP median 3.1 percent · Open · December EFFR 3.63 percent ()
  118. · year-end 2024 SEP median 5.1 percent · Missed · December EFFR 4.33 percent ()
  119. · year-end 2025 SEP median 4.1 percent · Missed · December EFFR 3.64 percent ()
  120. · year-end 2026 SEP median 3.1 percent · Open · December EFFR 3.63 percent ()
  121. · year-end 2024 SEP median 4.4 percent · Correct · December EFFR 4.33 percent ()
  122. · year-end 2025 SEP median 3.4 percent · Missed · December EFFR 3.64 percent ()
  123. · year-end 2026 SEP median 2.9 percent · Open · December EFFR 3.63 percent ()
  124. · year-end 2027 SEP median 2.9 percent · Open · December EFFR 3.63 percent ()
  125. · year-end 2024 SEP median 4.4 percent · Correct · December EFFR 4.33 percent ()
  126. · year-end 2025 SEP median 3.9 percent · Missed · December EFFR 3.64 percent ()
  127. · year-end 2026 SEP median 3.4 percent · Open · December EFFR 3.63 percent ()
  128. · year-end 2027 SEP median 3.1 percent · Open · December EFFR 3.63 percent ()
  129. · year-end 2025 SEP median 3.9 percent · Missed · December EFFR 3.64 percent ()
  130. · year-end 2026 SEP median 3.4 percent · Open · December EFFR 3.63 percent ()
  131. · year-end 2027 SEP median 3.1 percent · Open · December EFFR 3.63 percent ()
  132. · year-end 2025 SEP median 3.9 percent · Missed · December EFFR 3.64 percent ()

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Summary of Economic Projections and H.15 · as of · Verify observation

FOMC SEP

Open the FOMC SEP scoreboard · Correct / missed / open counts. No hit-rate %.

FOMC SEP

32 correct 93 missed 17 open

  • Correct June 18, 2025 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2026 is 3.6 percent. · target 3.6 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open June 18, 2025 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2027 is 3.4 percent. · target 3.4 · federalreserve.gov
  • Correct September 17, 2025 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2025 is 3.6 percent. · target 3.6 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open September 17, 2025 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2026 is 3.4 percent. · target 3.4 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open September 17, 2025 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2027 is 3.1 percent. · target 3.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open September 17, 2025 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2028 is 3.1 percent. · target 3.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Correct December 10, 2025 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2025 is 3.6 percent. · target 3.6 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open December 10, 2025 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2026 is 3.4 percent. · target 3.4 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open December 10, 2025 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2027 is 3.1 percent. · target 3.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open December 10, 2025 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2028 is 3.1 percent. · target 3.1 · federalreserve.gov
132 earlier claims
  • Missed September 17, 2015 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2015 is 0.4 percent. · target 0.4 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed September 17, 2015 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2016 is 1.4 percent. · target 1.4 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed September 17, 2015 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2017 is 2.6 percent. · target 2.6 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed September 17, 2015 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2018 is 3.4 percent. · target 3.4 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed December 16, 2015 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2015 is 0.4 percent. · target 0.4 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed December 16, 2015 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2016 is 1.4 percent. · target 1.4 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed December 16, 2015 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2017 is 2.4 percent. · target 2.4 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed December 16, 2015 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2018 is 3.3 percent. · target 3.3 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed March 16, 2016 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2016 is 0.9 percent. · target 0.9 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed March 16, 2016 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2017 is 1.9 percent. · target 1.9 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed March 16, 2016 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2018 is 3 percent. · target 3.0 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed June 15, 2016 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2016 is 0.9 percent. · target 0.9 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed June 15, 2016 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2017 is 1.6 percent. · target 1.6 · federalreserve.gov
  • Correct June 15, 2016 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2018 is 2.4 percent. · target 2.4 · federalreserve.gov
  • Correct September 21, 2016 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2016 is 0.6 percent. · target 0.6 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed September 21, 2016 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2017 is 1.1 percent. · target 1.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed September 21, 2016 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2018 is 1.9 percent. · target 1.9 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed September 21, 2016 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2019 is 2.6 percent. · target 2.6 · federalreserve.gov
  • Correct December 14, 2016 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2016 is 0.6 percent. · target 0.6 · federalreserve.gov
  • Correct December 14, 2016 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2017 is 1.4 percent. · target 1.4 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed December 14, 2016 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2018 is 2.1 percent. · target 2.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed December 14, 2016 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2019 is 2.9 percent. · target 2.9 · federalreserve.gov
  • Correct March 15, 2017 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2017 is 1.4 percent. · target 1.4 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed March 15, 2017 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2018 is 2.1 percent. · target 2.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed March 15, 2017 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2019 is 3 percent. · target 3.0 · federalreserve.gov
  • Correct June 14, 2017 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2017 is 1.4 percent. · target 1.4 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed June 14, 2017 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2018 is 2.1 percent. · target 2.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed June 14, 2017 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2019 is 2.9 percent. · target 2.9 · federalreserve.gov
  • Correct September 20, 2017 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2017 is 1.4 percent. · target 1.4 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed September 20, 2017 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2018 is 2.1 percent. · target 2.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed September 20, 2017 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2019 is 2.7 percent. · target 2.7 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed September 20, 2017 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2020 is 2.9 percent. · target 2.9 · federalreserve.gov
  • Correct December 13, 2017 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2017 is 1.4 percent. · target 1.4 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed December 13, 2017 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2018 is 2.1 percent. · target 2.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed December 13, 2017 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2019 is 2.7 percent. · target 2.7 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed December 13, 2017 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2020 is 3.1 percent. · target 3.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed March 21, 2018 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2018 is 2.1 percent. · target 2.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed March 21, 2018 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2019 is 2.9 percent. · target 2.9 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed March 21, 2018 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2020 is 3.4 percent. · target 3.4 · federalreserve.gov
  • Correct June 13, 2018 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2018 is 2.4 percent. · target 2.4 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed June 13, 2018 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2019 is 3.1 percent. · target 3.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed June 13, 2018 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2020 is 3.4 percent. · target 3.4 · federalreserve.gov
  • Correct September 26, 2018 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2018 is 2.4 percent. · target 2.4 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed September 26, 2018 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2019 is 3.1 percent. · target 3.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed September 26, 2018 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2020 is 3.4 percent. · target 3.4 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed September 26, 2018 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2021 is 3.4 percent. · target 3.4 · federalreserve.gov
  • Correct December 19, 2018 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2018 is 2.4 percent. · target 2.4 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed December 19, 2018 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2019 is 2.9 percent. · target 2.9 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed December 19, 2018 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2020 is 3.1 percent. · target 3.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed December 19, 2018 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2021 is 3.1 percent. · target 3.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed March 20, 2019 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2019 is 2.4 percent. · target 2.4 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed March 20, 2019 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2020 is 2.6 percent. · target 2.6 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed March 20, 2019 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2021 is 2.6 percent. · target 2.6 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed June 19, 2019 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2019 is 2.4 percent. · target 2.4 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed June 19, 2019 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2020 is 2.1 percent. · target 2.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed June 19, 2019 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2021 is 2.4 percent. · target 2.4 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed September 18, 2019 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2019 is 1.9 percent. · target 1.9 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed September 18, 2019 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2020 is 1.9 percent. · target 1.9 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed September 18, 2019 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2021 is 2.1 percent. · target 2.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed September 18, 2019 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2022 is 2.4 percent. · target 2.4 · federalreserve.gov
  • Correct December 11, 2019 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2019 is 1.6 percent. · target 1.6 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed December 11, 2019 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2020 is 1.6 percent. · target 1.6 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed December 11, 2019 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2021 is 1.9 percent. · target 1.9 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed December 11, 2019 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2022 is 2.1 percent. · target 2.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Correct June 10, 2020 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2020 is 0.1 percent. · target 0.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Correct June 10, 2020 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2021 is 0.1 percent. · target 0.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed June 10, 2020 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2022 is 0.1 percent. · target 0.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Correct September 16, 2020 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2020 is 0.1 percent. · target 0.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Correct September 16, 2020 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2021 is 0.1 percent. · target 0.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed September 16, 2020 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2022 is 0.1 percent. · target 0.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed September 16, 2020 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2023 is 0.1 percent. · target 0.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Correct December 16, 2020 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2020 is 0.1 percent. · target 0.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Correct December 16, 2020 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2021 is 0.1 percent. · target 0.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed December 16, 2020 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2022 is 0.1 percent. · target 0.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed December 16, 2020 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2023 is 0.1 percent. · target 0.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Correct March 17, 2021 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2021 is 0.1 percent. · target 0.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed March 17, 2021 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2022 is 0.1 percent. · target 0.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed March 17, 2021 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2023 is 0.1 percent. · target 0.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Correct June 16, 2021 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2021 is 0.1 percent. · target 0.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed June 16, 2021 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2022 is 0.1 percent. · target 0.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed June 16, 2021 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2023 is 0.6 percent. · target 0.6 · federalreserve.gov
  • Correct September 22, 2021 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2021 is 0.1 percent. · target 0.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed September 22, 2021 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2022 is 0.3 percent. · target 0.3 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed September 22, 2021 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2023 is 1 percent. · target 1.0 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed September 22, 2021 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2024 is 1.8 percent. · target 1.8 · federalreserve.gov
  • Correct December 15, 2021 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2021 is 0.1 percent. · target 0.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed December 15, 2021 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2022 is 0.9 percent. · target 0.9 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed December 15, 2021 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2023 is 1.6 percent. · target 1.6 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed December 15, 2021 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2024 is 2.1 percent. · target 2.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed June 15, 2022 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2022 is 3.4 percent. · target 3.4 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed June 15, 2022 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2023 is 3.8 percent. · target 3.8 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed June 15, 2022 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2024 is 3.4 percent. · target 3.4 · federalreserve.gov
  • Correct September 21, 2022 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2022 is 4.4 percent. · target 4.4 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed September 21, 2022 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2023 is 4.6 percent. · target 4.6 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed September 21, 2022 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2024 is 3.9 percent. · target 3.9 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed September 21, 2022 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2025 is 2.9 percent. · target 2.9 · federalreserve.gov
  • Correct December 14, 2022 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2022 is 4.4 percent. · target 4.4 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed December 14, 2022 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2023 is 5.1 percent. · target 5.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed December 14, 2022 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2024 is 4.1 percent. · target 4.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed December 14, 2022 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2025 is 3.1 percent. · target 3.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed March 22, 2023 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2023 is 5.1 percent. · target 5.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Correct March 22, 2023 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2024 is 4.3 percent. · target 4.3 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed March 22, 2023 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2025 is 3.1 percent. · target 3.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed June 14, 2023 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2023 is 5.6 percent. · target 5.6 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed June 14, 2023 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2024 is 4.6 percent. · target 4.6 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed June 14, 2023 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2025 is 3.4 percent. · target 3.4 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed September 20, 2023 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2023 is 5.6 percent. · target 5.6 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed September 20, 2023 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2024 is 5.1 percent. · target 5.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed September 20, 2023 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2025 is 3.9 percent. · target 3.9 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open September 20, 2023 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2026 is 2.9 percent. · target 2.9 · federalreserve.gov
  • Correct December 13, 2023 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2023 is 5.4 percent. · target 5.4 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed December 13, 2023 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2024 is 4.6 percent. · target 4.6 · federalreserve.gov
  • Correct December 13, 2023 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2025 is 3.6 percent. · target 3.6 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open December 13, 2023 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2026 is 2.9 percent. · target 2.9 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed March 20, 2024 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2024 is 4.6 percent. · target 4.6 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed March 20, 2024 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2025 is 3.9 percent. · target 3.9 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open March 20, 2024 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2026 is 3.1 percent. · target 3.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed June 12, 2024 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2024 is 5.1 percent. · target 5.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed June 12, 2024 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2025 is 4.1 percent. · target 4.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open June 12, 2024 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2026 is 3.1 percent. · target 3.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Correct September 18, 2024 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2024 is 4.4 percent. · target 4.4 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed September 18, 2024 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2025 is 3.4 percent. · target 3.4 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open September 18, 2024 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2026 is 2.9 percent. · target 2.9 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open September 18, 2024 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2027 is 2.9 percent. · target 2.9 · federalreserve.gov
  • Correct December 18, 2024 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2024 is 4.4 percent. · target 4.4 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed December 18, 2024 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2025 is 3.9 percent. · target 3.9 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open December 18, 2024 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2026 is 3.4 percent. · target 3.4 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open December 18, 2024 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2027 is 3.1 percent. · target 3.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed March 19, 2025 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2025 is 3.9 percent. · target 3.9 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open March 19, 2025 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2026 is 3.4 percent. · target 3.4 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open March 19, 2025 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2027 is 3.1 percent. · target 3.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed June 2025 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2025 is 3.9 percent. · target 3.9 · federalreserve.gov
8 claims with horizon after this calendar year

FOMC SEP

0 correct 0 missed 8 open

  • Open September 18, 2024 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2027 is 2.9 percent. · target 2.9 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open December 18, 2024 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2027 is 3.1 percent. · target 3.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open March 19, 2025 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2027 is 3.1 percent. · target 3.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open June 18, 2025 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2027 is 3.4 percent. · target 3.4 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open September 17, 2025 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2027 is 3.1 percent. · target 3.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open September 17, 2025 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2028 is 3.1 percent. · target 3.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open December 10, 2025 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2027 is 3.1 percent. · target 3.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open December 10, 2025 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2028 is 3.1 percent. · target 3.1 · federalreserve.gov

Data atoms

Permanent observation URLs and official claim sources.

  1. H.15 effective federal funds as of 2026-08-24 · Series card
  2. Correct · year-end 2026 median 3.6% · meeting · Official SEP
  3. Open · year-end 2027 median 3.4% · meeting · Official SEP
  4. Correct · year-end 2025 median 3.6% · meeting · Official SEP
  5. Open · year-end 2026 median 3.4% · meeting · Official SEP
  6. Open · year-end 2027 median 3.1% · meeting · Official SEP
  7. Open · year-end 2028 median 3.1% · meeting · Official SEP
  8. Correct · year-end 2025 median 3.6% · meeting · Official SEP
  9. Open · year-end 2026 median 3.4% · meeting · Official SEP
  10. Open · year-end 2027 median 3.1% · meeting · Official SEP
  11. Open · year-end 2028 median 3.1% · meeting · Official SEP
132 earlier atoms
  1. Missed · year-end 2015 median 0.4% · meeting · Official SEP
  2. Missed · year-end 2016 median 1.4% · meeting · Official SEP
  3. Missed · year-end 2017 median 2.6% · meeting · Official SEP
  4. Missed · year-end 2018 median 3.4% · meeting · Official SEP
  5. Missed · year-end 2015 median 0.4% · meeting · Official SEP
  6. Missed · year-end 2016 median 1.4% · meeting · Official SEP
  7. Missed · year-end 2017 median 2.4% · meeting · Official SEP
  8. Missed · year-end 2018 median 3.3% · meeting · Official SEP
  9. Missed · year-end 2016 median 0.9% · meeting · Official SEP
  10. Missed · year-end 2017 median 1.9% · meeting · Official SEP
  11. Missed · year-end 2018 median 3.0% · meeting · Official SEP
  12. Missed · year-end 2016 median 0.9% · meeting · Official SEP
  13. Missed · year-end 2017 median 1.6% · meeting · Official SEP
  14. Correct · year-end 2018 median 2.4% · meeting · Official SEP
  15. Correct · year-end 2016 median 0.6% · meeting · Official SEP
  16. Missed · year-end 2017 median 1.1% · meeting · Official SEP
  17. Missed · year-end 2018 median 1.9% · meeting · Official SEP
  18. Missed · year-end 2019 median 2.6% · meeting · Official SEP
  19. Correct · year-end 2016 median 0.6% · meeting · Official SEP
  20. Correct · year-end 2017 median 1.4% · meeting · Official SEP
  21. Missed · year-end 2018 median 2.1% · meeting · Official SEP
  22. Missed · year-end 2019 median 2.9% · meeting · Official SEP
  23. Correct · year-end 2017 median 1.4% · meeting · Official SEP
  24. Missed · year-end 2018 median 2.1% · meeting · Official SEP
  25. Missed · year-end 2019 median 3.0% · meeting · Official SEP
  26. Correct · year-end 2017 median 1.4% · meeting · Official SEP
  27. Missed · year-end 2018 median 2.1% · meeting · Official SEP
  28. Missed · year-end 2019 median 2.9% · meeting · Official SEP
  29. Correct · year-end 2017 median 1.4% · meeting · Official SEP
  30. Missed · year-end 2018 median 2.1% · meeting · Official SEP
  31. Missed · year-end 2019 median 2.7% · meeting · Official SEP
  32. Missed · year-end 2020 median 2.9% · meeting · Official SEP
  33. Correct · year-end 2017 median 1.4% · meeting · Official SEP
  34. Missed · year-end 2018 median 2.1% · meeting · Official SEP
  35. Missed · year-end 2019 median 2.7% · meeting · Official SEP
  36. Missed · year-end 2020 median 3.1% · meeting · Official SEP
  37. Missed · year-end 2018 median 2.1% · meeting · Official SEP
  38. Missed · year-end 2019 median 2.9% · meeting · Official SEP
  39. Missed · year-end 2020 median 3.4% · meeting · Official SEP
  40. Correct · year-end 2018 median 2.4% · meeting · Official SEP
  41. Missed · year-end 2019 median 3.1% · meeting · Official SEP
  42. Missed · year-end 2020 median 3.4% · meeting · Official SEP
  43. Correct · year-end 2018 median 2.4% · meeting · Official SEP
  44. Missed · year-end 2019 median 3.1% · meeting · Official SEP
  45. Missed · year-end 2020 median 3.4% · meeting · Official SEP
  46. Missed · year-end 2021 median 3.4% · meeting · Official SEP
  47. Correct · year-end 2018 median 2.4% · meeting · Official SEP
  48. Missed · year-end 2019 median 2.9% · meeting · Official SEP
  49. Missed · year-end 2020 median 3.1% · meeting · Official SEP
  50. Missed · year-end 2021 median 3.1% · meeting · Official SEP
  51. Missed · year-end 2019 median 2.4% · meeting · Official SEP
  52. Missed · year-end 2020 median 2.6% · meeting · Official SEP
  53. Missed · year-end 2021 median 2.6% · meeting · Official SEP
  54. Missed · year-end 2019 median 2.4% · meeting · Official SEP
  55. Missed · year-end 2020 median 2.1% · meeting · Official SEP
  56. Missed · year-end 2021 median 2.4% · meeting · Official SEP
  57. Missed · year-end 2019 median 1.9% · meeting · Official SEP
  58. Missed · year-end 2020 median 1.9% · meeting · Official SEP
  59. Missed · year-end 2021 median 2.1% · meeting · Official SEP
  60. Missed · year-end 2022 median 2.4% · meeting · Official SEP
  61. Correct · year-end 2019 median 1.6% · meeting · Official SEP
  62. Missed · year-end 2020 median 1.6% · meeting · Official SEP
  63. Missed · year-end 2021 median 1.9% · meeting · Official SEP
  64. Missed · year-end 2022 median 2.1% · meeting · Official SEP
  65. Correct · year-end 2020 median 0.1% · meeting · Official SEP
  66. Correct · year-end 2021 median 0.1% · meeting · Official SEP
  67. Missed · year-end 2022 median 0.1% · meeting · Official SEP
  68. Correct · year-end 2020 median 0.1% · meeting · Official SEP
  69. Correct · year-end 2021 median 0.1% · meeting · Official SEP
  70. Missed · year-end 2022 median 0.1% · meeting · Official SEP
  71. Missed · year-end 2023 median 0.1% · meeting · Official SEP
  72. Correct · year-end 2020 median 0.1% · meeting · Official SEP
  73. Correct · year-end 2021 median 0.1% · meeting · Official SEP
  74. Missed · year-end 2022 median 0.1% · meeting · Official SEP
  75. Missed · year-end 2023 median 0.1% · meeting · Official SEP
  76. Correct · year-end 2021 median 0.1% · meeting · Official SEP
  77. Missed · year-end 2022 median 0.1% · meeting · Official SEP
  78. Missed · year-end 2023 median 0.1% · meeting · Official SEP
  79. Correct · year-end 2021 median 0.1% · meeting · Official SEP
  80. Missed · year-end 2022 median 0.1% · meeting · Official SEP
  81. Missed · year-end 2023 median 0.6% · meeting · Official SEP
  82. Correct · year-end 2021 median 0.1% · meeting · Official SEP
  83. Missed · year-end 2022 median 0.3% · meeting · Official SEP
  84. Missed · year-end 2023 median 1.0% · meeting · Official SEP
  85. Missed · year-end 2024 median 1.8% · meeting · Official SEP
  86. Correct · year-end 2021 median 0.1% · meeting · Official SEP
  87. Missed · year-end 2022 median 0.9% · meeting · Official SEP
  88. Missed · year-end 2023 median 1.6% · meeting · Official SEP
  89. Missed · year-end 2024 median 2.1% · meeting · Official SEP
  90. Missed · year-end 2022 median 3.4% · meeting · Official SEP
  91. Missed · year-end 2023 median 3.8% · meeting · Official SEP
  92. Missed · year-end 2024 median 3.4% · meeting · Official SEP
  93. Correct · year-end 2022 median 4.4% · meeting · Official SEP
  94. Missed · year-end 2023 median 4.6% · meeting · Official SEP
  95. Missed · year-end 2024 median 3.9% · meeting · Official SEP
  96. Missed · year-end 2025 median 2.9% · meeting · Official SEP
  97. Correct · year-end 2022 median 4.4% · meeting · Official SEP
  98. Missed · year-end 2023 median 5.1% · meeting · Official SEP
  99. Missed · year-end 2024 median 4.1% · meeting · Official SEP
  100. Missed · year-end 2025 median 3.1% · meeting · Official SEP
  101. Missed · year-end 2023 median 5.1% · meeting · Official SEP
  102. Correct · year-end 2024 median 4.3% · meeting · Official SEP
  103. Missed · year-end 2025 median 3.1% · meeting · Official SEP
  104. Missed · year-end 2023 median 5.6% · meeting · Official SEP
  105. Missed · year-end 2024 median 4.6% · meeting · Official SEP
  106. Missed · year-end 2025 median 3.4% · meeting · Official SEP
  107. Missed · year-end 2023 median 5.6% · meeting · Official SEP
  108. Missed · year-end 2024 median 5.1% · meeting · Official SEP
  109. Missed · year-end 2025 median 3.9% · meeting · Official SEP
  110. Open · year-end 2026 median 2.9% · meeting · Official SEP
  111. Correct · year-end 2023 median 5.4% · meeting · Official SEP
  112. Missed · year-end 2024 median 4.6% · meeting · Official SEP
  113. Correct · year-end 2025 median 3.6% · meeting · Official SEP
  114. Open · year-end 2026 median 2.9% · meeting · Official SEP
  115. Missed · year-end 2024 median 4.6% · meeting · Official SEP
  116. Missed · year-end 2025 median 3.9% · meeting · Official SEP
  117. Open · year-end 2026 median 3.1% · meeting · Official SEP
  118. Missed · year-end 2024 median 5.1% · meeting · Official SEP
  119. Missed · year-end 2025 median 4.1% · meeting · Official SEP
  120. Open · year-end 2026 median 3.1% · meeting · Official SEP
  121. Correct · year-end 2024 median 4.4% · meeting · Official SEP
  122. Missed · year-end 2025 median 3.4% · meeting · Official SEP
  123. Open · year-end 2026 median 2.9% · meeting · Official SEP
  124. Open · year-end 2027 median 2.9% · meeting · Official SEP
  125. Correct · year-end 2024 median 4.4% · meeting · Official SEP
  126. Missed · year-end 2025 median 3.9% · meeting · Official SEP
  127. Open · year-end 2026 median 3.4% · meeting · Official SEP
  128. Open · year-end 2027 median 3.1% · meeting · Official SEP
  129. Missed · year-end 2025 median 3.9% · meeting · Official SEP
  130. Open · year-end 2026 median 3.4% · meeting · Official SEP
  131. Open · year-end 2027 median 3.1% · meeting · Official SEP
  132. Missed · year-end 2025 median 3.9% · meeting · Official SEP

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FOMC SEP year-end 2026 median federal funds 3.4% (meeting 2025-12-10); H.15 effective federal funds 3.63% as of 2026-08-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, via TrackRecord.
FOMC SEP year-end 2026 median federal funds 3.4% (meeting 2025-12-10); H.15 effective federal funds 3.63% as of 2026-08-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, via TrackRecord.
https://trackrecord.to/packs/sep-vs-reality

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