FOMC SEP

We keep score. We do not play. Official forecasts versus held Numbers. No hit-rate %.

Official forecast scoreboard hub · Methodology v0.1

This page does not publish a hit rate. A percentage is withheld until legal review of the public copy (methodology v0.1).

285

Correct / missed / open counts. No hit-rate %.

32 correct 93 missed 160 open

By topic

  • US Employment

    0 correct 0 missed 142 open

  • US Inflation

    0 correct 0 missed 1 open

  • US Interest Rates

    32 correct 93 missed 17 open

SCORING RECORD

Methodology v0.1 uses R1, R2, and R4. Full claim source URLs stay on this face.

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Claims

  • Open September 17, 2015 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2015 is 5 percent. · target 5.0 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open September 17, 2015 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2016 is 4.8 percent. · target 4.8 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open September 17, 2015 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2017 is 4.8 percent. · target 4.8 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open September 17, 2015 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2018 is 4.8 percent. · target 4.8 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed September 17, 2015 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2015 is 0.4 percent. · target 0.4 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed September 17, 2015 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2016 is 1.4 percent. · target 1.4 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed September 17, 2015 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2017 is 2.6 percent. · target 2.6 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed September 17, 2015 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2018 is 3.4 percent. · target 3.4 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open December 16, 2015 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2015 is 5 percent. · target 5.0 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open December 16, 2015 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2016 is 4.7 percent. · target 4.7 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open December 16, 2015 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2017 is 4.7 percent. · target 4.7 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open December 16, 2015 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2018 is 4.7 percent. · target 4.7 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed December 16, 2015 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2015 is 0.4 percent. · target 0.4 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed December 16, 2015 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2016 is 1.4 percent. · target 1.4 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed December 16, 2015 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2017 is 2.4 percent. · target 2.4 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed December 16, 2015 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2018 is 3.3 percent. · target 3.3 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open March 16, 2016 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2016 is 4.7 percent. · target 4.7 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open March 16, 2016 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2017 is 4.6 percent. · target 4.6 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open March 16, 2016 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2018 is 4.5 percent. · target 4.5 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed March 16, 2016 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2016 is 0.9 percent. · target 0.9 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed March 16, 2016 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2017 is 1.9 percent. · target 1.9 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed March 16, 2016 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2018 is 3 percent. · target 3.0 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open June 15, 2016 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2016 is 4.7 percent. · target 4.7 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open June 15, 2016 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2017 is 4.6 percent. · target 4.6 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open June 15, 2016 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2018 is 4.6 percent. · target 4.6 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed June 15, 2016 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2016 is 0.9 percent. · target 0.9 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed June 15, 2016 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2017 is 1.6 percent. · target 1.6 · federalreserve.gov
  • Correct June 15, 2016 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2018 is 2.4 percent. · target 2.4 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open September 21, 2016 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2016 is 4.8 percent. · target 4.8 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open September 21, 2016 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2017 is 4.6 percent. · target 4.6 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open September 21, 2016 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2018 is 4.5 percent. · target 4.5 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open September 21, 2016 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2019 is 4.6 percent. · target 4.6 · federalreserve.gov
  • Correct September 21, 2016 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2016 is 0.6 percent. · target 0.6 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed September 21, 2016 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2017 is 1.1 percent. · target 1.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed September 21, 2016 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2018 is 1.9 percent. · target 1.9 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed September 21, 2016 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2019 is 2.6 percent. · target 2.6 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open December 14, 2016 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2016 is 4.7 percent. · target 4.7 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open December 14, 2016 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2017 is 4.5 percent. · target 4.5 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open December 14, 2016 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2018 is 4.5 percent. · target 4.5 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open December 14, 2016 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2019 is 4.5 percent. · target 4.5 · federalreserve.gov
  • Correct December 14, 2016 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2016 is 0.6 percent. · target 0.6 · federalreserve.gov
  • Correct December 14, 2016 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2017 is 1.4 percent. · target 1.4 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed December 14, 2016 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2018 is 2.1 percent. · target 2.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed December 14, 2016 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2019 is 2.9 percent. · target 2.9 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open March 15, 2017 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2017 is 4.5 percent. · target 4.5 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open March 15, 2017 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2018 is 4.5 percent. · target 4.5 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open March 15, 2017 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2019 is 4.5 percent. · target 4.5 · federalreserve.gov
  • Correct March 15, 2017 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2017 is 1.4 percent. · target 1.4 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed March 15, 2017 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2018 is 2.1 percent. · target 2.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed March 15, 2017 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2019 is 3 percent. · target 3.0 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open June 14, 2017 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2017 is 4.3 percent. · target 4.3 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open June 14, 2017 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2018 is 4.2 percent. · target 4.2 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open June 14, 2017 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2019 is 4.2 percent. · target 4.2 · federalreserve.gov
  • Correct June 14, 2017 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2017 is 1.4 percent. · target 1.4 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed June 14, 2017 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2018 is 2.1 percent. · target 2.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed June 14, 2017 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2019 is 2.9 percent. · target 2.9 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open September 20, 2017 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2017 is 4.3 percent. · target 4.3 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open September 20, 2017 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2018 is 4.1 percent. · target 4.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open September 20, 2017 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2019 is 4.1 percent. · target 4.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open September 20, 2017 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2020 is 4.2 percent. · target 4.2 · federalreserve.gov
  • Correct September 20, 2017 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2017 is 1.4 percent. · target 1.4 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed September 20, 2017 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2018 is 2.1 percent. · target 2.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed September 20, 2017 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2019 is 2.7 percent. · target 2.7 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed September 20, 2017 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2020 is 2.9 percent. · target 2.9 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open December 13, 2017 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2017 is 4.1 percent. · target 4.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open December 13, 2017 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2018 is 3.9 percent. · target 3.9 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open December 13, 2017 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2019 is 3.9 percent. · target 3.9 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open December 13, 2017 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2020 is 4 percent. · target 4.0 · federalreserve.gov
  • Correct December 13, 2017 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2017 is 1.4 percent. · target 1.4 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed December 13, 2017 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2018 is 2.1 percent. · target 2.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed December 13, 2017 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2019 is 2.7 percent. · target 2.7 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed December 13, 2017 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2020 is 3.1 percent. · target 3.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open March 21, 2018 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2018 is 3.8 percent. · target 3.8 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open March 21, 2018 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2019 is 3.6 percent. · target 3.6 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open March 21, 2018 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2020 is 3.6 percent. · target 3.6 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed March 21, 2018 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2018 is 2.1 percent. · target 2.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed March 21, 2018 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2019 is 2.9 percent. · target 2.9 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed March 21, 2018 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2020 is 3.4 percent. · target 3.4 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open June 13, 2018 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2018 is 3.6 percent. · target 3.6 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open June 13, 2018 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2019 is 3.5 percent. · target 3.5 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open June 13, 2018 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2020 is 3.5 percent. · target 3.5 · federalreserve.gov
  • Correct June 13, 2018 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2018 is 2.4 percent. · target 2.4 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed June 13, 2018 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2019 is 3.1 percent. · target 3.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed June 13, 2018 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2020 is 3.4 percent. · target 3.4 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open September 26, 2018 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2018 is 3.7 percent. · target 3.7 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open September 26, 2018 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2019 is 3.5 percent. · target 3.5 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open September 26, 2018 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2020 is 3.5 percent. · target 3.5 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open September 26, 2018 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2021 is 3.7 percent. · target 3.7 · federalreserve.gov
  • Correct September 26, 2018 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2018 is 2.4 percent. · target 2.4 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed September 26, 2018 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2019 is 3.1 percent. · target 3.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed September 26, 2018 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2020 is 3.4 percent. · target 3.4 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed September 26, 2018 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2021 is 3.4 percent. · target 3.4 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open December 19, 2018 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2018 is 3.7 percent. · target 3.7 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open December 19, 2018 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2019 is 3.5 percent. · target 3.5 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open December 19, 2018 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2020 is 3.6 percent. · target 3.6 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open December 19, 2018 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2021 is 3.8 percent. · target 3.8 · federalreserve.gov
  • Correct December 19, 2018 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2018 is 2.4 percent. · target 2.4 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed December 19, 2018 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2019 is 2.9 percent. · target 2.9 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed December 19, 2018 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2020 is 3.1 percent. · target 3.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed December 19, 2018 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2021 is 3.1 percent. · target 3.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open March 20, 2019 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2019 is 3.7 percent. · target 3.7 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open March 20, 2019 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2020 is 3.8 percent. · target 3.8 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open March 20, 2019 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2021 is 3.9 percent. · target 3.9 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed March 20, 2019 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2019 is 2.4 percent. · target 2.4 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed March 20, 2019 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2020 is 2.6 percent. · target 2.6 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed March 20, 2019 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2021 is 2.6 percent. · target 2.6 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open June 19, 2019 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2019 is 3.6 percent. · target 3.6 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open June 19, 2019 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2020 is 3.7 percent. · target 3.7 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open June 19, 2019 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2021 is 3.8 percent. · target 3.8 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed June 19, 2019 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2019 is 2.4 percent. · target 2.4 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed June 19, 2019 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2020 is 2.1 percent. · target 2.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed June 19, 2019 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2021 is 2.4 percent. · target 2.4 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open September 18, 2019 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2019 is 3.7 percent. · target 3.7 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open September 18, 2019 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2020 is 3.7 percent. · target 3.7 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open September 18, 2019 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2021 is 3.8 percent. · target 3.8 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open September 18, 2019 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2022 is 3.9 percent. · target 3.9 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed September 18, 2019 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2019 is 1.9 percent. · target 1.9 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed September 18, 2019 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2020 is 1.9 percent. · target 1.9 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed September 18, 2019 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2021 is 2.1 percent. · target 2.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed September 18, 2019 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2022 is 2.4 percent. · target 2.4 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open December 11, 2019 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2019 is 3.6 percent. · target 3.6 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open December 11, 2019 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2020 is 3.5 percent. · target 3.5 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open December 11, 2019 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2021 is 3.6 percent. · target 3.6 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open December 11, 2019 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2022 is 3.7 percent. · target 3.7 · federalreserve.gov
  • Correct December 11, 2019 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2019 is 1.6 percent. · target 1.6 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed December 11, 2019 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2020 is 1.6 percent. · target 1.6 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed December 11, 2019 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2021 is 1.9 percent. · target 1.9 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed December 11, 2019 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2022 is 2.1 percent. · target 2.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open June 10, 2020 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2020 is 9.3 percent. · target 9.3 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open June 10, 2020 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2021 is 6.5 percent. · target 6.5 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open June 10, 2020 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2022 is 5.5 percent. · target 5.5 · federalreserve.gov
  • Correct June 10, 2020 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2020 is 0.1 percent. · target 0.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Correct June 10, 2020 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2021 is 0.1 percent. · target 0.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed June 10, 2020 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2022 is 0.1 percent. · target 0.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open September 16, 2020 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2020 is 7.6 percent. · target 7.6 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open September 16, 2020 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2021 is 5.5 percent. · target 5.5 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open September 16, 2020 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2022 is 4.6 percent. · target 4.6 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open September 16, 2020 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2023 is 4 percent. · target 4.0 · federalreserve.gov
  • Correct September 16, 2020 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2020 is 0.1 percent. · target 0.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Correct September 16, 2020 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2021 is 0.1 percent. · target 0.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed September 16, 2020 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2022 is 0.1 percent. · target 0.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed September 16, 2020 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2023 is 0.1 percent. · target 0.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open December 16, 2020 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2020 is 6.7 percent. · target 6.7 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open December 16, 2020 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2021 is 5 percent. · target 5.0 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open December 16, 2020 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2022 is 4.2 percent. · target 4.2 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open December 16, 2020 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2023 is 3.7 percent. · target 3.7 · federalreserve.gov
  • Correct December 16, 2020 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2020 is 0.1 percent. · target 0.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Correct December 16, 2020 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2021 is 0.1 percent. · target 0.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed December 16, 2020 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2022 is 0.1 percent. · target 0.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed December 16, 2020 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2023 is 0.1 percent. · target 0.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open March 17, 2021 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2021 is 4.5 percent. · target 4.5 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open March 17, 2021 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2022 is 3.9 percent. · target 3.9 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open March 17, 2021 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2023 is 3.5 percent. · target 3.5 · federalreserve.gov
  • Correct March 17, 2021 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2021 is 0.1 percent. · target 0.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed March 17, 2021 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2022 is 0.1 percent. · target 0.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed March 17, 2021 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2023 is 0.1 percent. · target 0.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open June 16, 2021 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2021 is 4.5 percent. · target 4.5 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open June 16, 2021 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2022 is 3.8 percent. · target 3.8 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open June 16, 2021 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2023 is 3.5 percent. · target 3.5 · federalreserve.gov
  • Correct June 16, 2021 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2021 is 0.1 percent. · target 0.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed June 16, 2021 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2022 is 0.1 percent. · target 0.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed June 16, 2021 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2023 is 0.6 percent. · target 0.6 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open September 22, 2021 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2021 is 4.8 percent. · target 4.8 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open September 22, 2021 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2022 is 3.8 percent. · target 3.8 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open September 22, 2021 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2023 is 3.5 percent. · target 3.5 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open September 22, 2021 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2024 is 3.5 percent. · target 3.5 · federalreserve.gov
  • Correct September 22, 2021 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2021 is 0.1 percent. · target 0.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed September 22, 2021 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2022 is 0.3 percent. · target 0.3 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed September 22, 2021 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2023 is 1 percent. · target 1.0 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed September 22, 2021 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2024 is 1.8 percent. · target 1.8 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open December 15, 2021 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2021 is 4.3 percent. · target 4.3 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open December 15, 2021 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2022 is 3.5 percent. · target 3.5 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open December 15, 2021 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2023 is 3.5 percent. · target 3.5 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open December 15, 2021 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2024 is 3.5 percent. · target 3.5 · federalreserve.gov
  • Correct December 15, 2021 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2021 is 0.1 percent. · target 0.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed December 15, 2021 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2022 is 0.9 percent. · target 0.9 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed December 15, 2021 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2023 is 1.6 percent. · target 1.6 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed December 15, 2021 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2024 is 2.1 percent. · target 2.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open June 15, 2022 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2022 is 3.7 percent. · target 3.7 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open June 15, 2022 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2023 is 3.9 percent. · target 3.9 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open June 15, 2022 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2024 is 4.1 percent. · target 4.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed June 15, 2022 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2022 is 3.4 percent. · target 3.4 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed June 15, 2022 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2023 is 3.8 percent. · target 3.8 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed June 15, 2022 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2024 is 3.4 percent. · target 3.4 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open September 21, 2022 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2022 is 3.8 percent. · target 3.8 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open September 21, 2022 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2023 is 4.4 percent. · target 4.4 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open September 21, 2022 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2024 is 4.4 percent. · target 4.4 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open September 21, 2022 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2025 is 4.3 percent. · target 4.3 · federalreserve.gov
  • Correct September 21, 2022 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2022 is 4.4 percent. · target 4.4 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed September 21, 2022 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2023 is 4.6 percent. · target 4.6 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed September 21, 2022 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2024 is 3.9 percent. · target 3.9 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed September 21, 2022 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2025 is 2.9 percent. · target 2.9 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open December 14, 2022 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2022 is 3.7 percent. · target 3.7 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open December 14, 2022 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2023 is 4.6 percent. · target 4.6 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open December 14, 2022 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2024 is 4.6 percent. · target 4.6 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open December 14, 2022 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2025 is 4.5 percent. · target 4.5 · federalreserve.gov
  • Correct December 14, 2022 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2022 is 4.4 percent. · target 4.4 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed December 14, 2022 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2023 is 5.1 percent. · target 5.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed December 14, 2022 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2024 is 4.1 percent. · target 4.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed December 14, 2022 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2025 is 3.1 percent. · target 3.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open March 22, 2023 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2023 is 4.5 percent. · target 4.5 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open March 22, 2023 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2024 is 4.6 percent. · target 4.6 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open March 22, 2023 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2025 is 4.6 percent. · target 4.6 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed March 22, 2023 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2023 is 5.1 percent. · target 5.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Correct March 22, 2023 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2024 is 4.3 percent. · target 4.3 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed March 22, 2023 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2025 is 3.1 percent. · target 3.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open June 14, 2023 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2023 is 4.1 percent. · target 4.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open June 14, 2023 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2024 is 4.5 percent. · target 4.5 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open June 14, 2023 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2025 is 4.5 percent. · target 4.5 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed June 14, 2023 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2023 is 5.6 percent. · target 5.6 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed June 14, 2023 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2024 is 4.6 percent. · target 4.6 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed June 14, 2023 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2025 is 3.4 percent. · target 3.4 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open September 20, 2023 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2023 is 3.8 percent. · target 3.8 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open September 20, 2023 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2024 is 4.1 percent. · target 4.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open September 20, 2023 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2025 is 4.1 percent. · target 4.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open September 20, 2023 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2026 is 4 percent. · target 4.0 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed September 20, 2023 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2023 is 5.6 percent. · target 5.6 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed September 20, 2023 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2024 is 5.1 percent. · target 5.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed September 20, 2023 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2025 is 3.9 percent. · target 3.9 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open September 20, 2023 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2026 is 2.9 percent. · target 2.9 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open December 13, 2023 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2023 is 3.8 percent. · target 3.8 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open December 13, 2023 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2024 is 4.1 percent. · target 4.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open December 13, 2023 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2025 is 4.1 percent. · target 4.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open December 13, 2023 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2026 is 4.1 percent. · target 4.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Correct December 13, 2023 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2023 is 5.4 percent. · target 5.4 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed December 13, 2023 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2024 is 4.6 percent. · target 4.6 · federalreserve.gov
  • Correct December 13, 2023 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2025 is 3.6 percent. · target 3.6 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open December 13, 2023 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2026 is 2.9 percent. · target 2.9 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open March 20, 2024 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2024 is 4 percent. · target 4.0 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open March 20, 2024 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2025 is 4.1 percent. · target 4.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open March 20, 2024 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2026 is 4 percent. · target 4.0 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed March 20, 2024 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2024 is 4.6 percent. · target 4.6 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed March 20, 2024 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2025 is 3.9 percent. · target 3.9 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open March 20, 2024 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2026 is 3.1 percent. · target 3.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open June 12, 2024 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2024 is 4 percent. · target 4.0 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open June 12, 2024 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2025 is 4.2 percent. · target 4.2 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open June 12, 2024 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2026 is 4.1 percent. · target 4.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed June 12, 2024 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2024 is 5.1 percent. · target 5.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed June 12, 2024 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2025 is 4.1 percent. · target 4.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open June 12, 2024 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2026 is 3.1 percent. · target 3.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open September 18, 2024 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2024 is 4.4 percent. · target 4.4 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open September 18, 2024 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2025 is 4.4 percent. · target 4.4 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open September 18, 2024 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2026 is 4.3 percent. · target 4.3 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open September 18, 2024 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2027 is 4.2 percent. · target 4.2 · federalreserve.gov
  • Correct September 18, 2024 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2024 is 4.4 percent. · target 4.4 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed September 18, 2024 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2025 is 3.4 percent. · target 3.4 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open September 18, 2024 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2026 is 2.9 percent. · target 2.9 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open September 18, 2024 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2027 is 2.9 percent. · target 2.9 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open December 18, 2024 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2024 is 4.2 percent. · target 4.2 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open December 18, 2024 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2025 is 4.3 percent. · target 4.3 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open December 18, 2024 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2026 is 4.3 percent. · target 4.3 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open December 18, 2024 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2027 is 4.3 percent. · target 4.3 · federalreserve.gov
  • Correct December 18, 2024 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2024 is 4.4 percent. · target 4.4 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed December 18, 2024 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2025 is 3.9 percent. · target 3.9 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open December 18, 2024 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2026 is 3.4 percent. · target 3.4 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open December 18, 2024 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2027 is 3.1 percent. · target 3.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open March 19, 2025 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2025 is 4.4 percent. · target 4.4 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open March 19, 2025 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2026 is 4.3 percent. · target 4.3 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open March 19, 2025 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2027 is 4.3 percent. · target 4.3 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed March 19, 2025 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2025 is 3.9 percent. · target 3.9 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open March 19, 2025 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2026 is 3.4 percent. · target 3.4 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open March 19, 2025 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2027 is 3.1 percent. · target 3.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Missed June 2025 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2025 is 3.9 percent. · target 3.9 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open June 2025 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2025 is 4.5 percent. · target 4.5 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open June 2025 SEP median PCE inflation for 2025 is 3.0 percent Q4/Q4. · target 3.0 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open June 18, 2025 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2026 is 4.5 percent. · target 4.5 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open June 18, 2025 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2027 is 4.4 percent. · target 4.4 · federalreserve.gov
  • Correct June 18, 2025 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2026 is 3.6 percent. · target 3.6 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open June 18, 2025 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2027 is 3.4 percent. · target 3.4 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open September 17, 2025 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2025 is 4.5 percent. · target 4.5 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open September 17, 2025 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2026 is 4.4 percent. · target 4.4 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open September 17, 2025 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2027 is 4.3 percent. · target 4.3 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open September 17, 2025 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2028 is 4.2 percent. · target 4.2 · federalreserve.gov
  • Correct September 17, 2025 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2025 is 3.6 percent. · target 3.6 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open September 17, 2025 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2026 is 3.4 percent. · target 3.4 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open September 17, 2025 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2027 is 3.1 percent. · target 3.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open September 17, 2025 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2028 is 3.1 percent. · target 3.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open December 10, 2025 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2025 is 4.5 percent. · target 4.5 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open December 10, 2025 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2026 is 4.4 percent. · target 4.4 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open December 10, 2025 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2027 is 4.2 percent. · target 4.2 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open December 10, 2025 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2028 is 4.2 percent. · target 4.2 · federalreserve.gov
  • Correct December 10, 2025 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2025 is 3.6 percent. · target 3.6 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open December 10, 2025 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2026 is 3.4 percent. · target 3.4 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open December 10, 2025 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2027 is 3.1 percent. · target 3.1 · federalreserve.gov
  • Open December 10, 2025 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2028 is 3.1 percent. · target 3.1 · federalreserve.gov

What this is

A scorekeeper for official forecasts we already hold as Numbers: FOMC SEP, the previous CPI and payroll prints versus the realized prints, and EIA STEO versus EIA surveys. We keep score. We do not play.

What this is not

  • Not a news extractor, dual-model claim pipeline, or TrackRecord forecast.
  • Not analyst gold, WTI, or Bitcoin targets.
  • Not a hit-rate ranking when fewer than 20 expired scorable claims are held.

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