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We keep score. We do not play. Prior-print holdings versus held Numbers where scored. No hit-rate %.

Prior-print baseline scoreboard.

Official forecast scoreboard hub · Methodology v0.1

This page does not publish a hit rate. A percentage is withheld until legal review of the public copy (methodology v0.1).

70

Prior-print · Correct / missed / open counts. No hit-rate %.

3 correct 67 missed 0 open

By topic

  • US Employment

    0 correct 41 missed 0 open

  • US Inflation

    3 correct 26 missed 0 open

SCORING RECORD

Methodology v0.1 uses R1, R2, and R4. Full claim source URLs stay on this face.

bls.govOpen source
bls.govOpen source

Read the scoring methodology · All officials

via TrackRecord

Claims

  • Missed Previous CES payrolls monthly change 290 thousand (as of 2023-02-01) as a naive forecast of the next print. · target +290 · bls.gov
  • Missed Previous CES payrolls monthly change 68 thousand (as of 2023-03-01) as a naive forecast of the next print. · target +68 · bls.gov
  • Missed Previous CES payrolls monthly change 241 thousand (as of 2023-04-01) as a naive forecast of the next print. · target +241 · bls.gov
  • Missed Previous CES payrolls monthly change 280 thousand (as of 2023-05-01) as a naive forecast of the next print. · target +280 · bls.gov
  • Missed Previous CES payrolls monthly change 225 thousand (as of 2023-06-01) as a naive forecast of the next print. · target +225 · bls.gov
  • Missed Previous CES payrolls monthly change 163 thousand (as of 2023-07-01) as a naive forecast of the next print. · target +163 · bls.gov
  • Missed Previous CES payrolls monthly change 218 thousand (as of 2023-08-01) as a naive forecast of the next print. · target +218 · bls.gov
  • Missed Previous CES payrolls monthly change 156 thousand (as of 2023-09-01) as a naive forecast of the next print. · target +156 · bls.gov
  • Missed Previous CES payrolls monthly change 159 thousand (as of 2023-10-01) as a naive forecast of the next print. · target +159 · bls.gov
  • Missed Previous CES payrolls monthly change 127 thousand (as of 2023-11-01) as a naive forecast of the next print. · target +127 · bls.gov
  • Missed Previous CES payrolls monthly change 154 thousand (as of 2023-12-01) as a naive forecast of the next print. · target +154 · bls.gov
  • Missed Previous CPI-U 12-month percent change 3.1 percent (as of 2024-01-01) as a naive forecast of the next print. · target 3.1 · bls.gov
  • Missed Previous CES payrolls monthly change 175 thousand (as of 2024-01-01) as a naive forecast of the next print. · target +175 · bls.gov
  • Missed Previous CPI-U 12-month percent change 3.2 percent (as of 2024-02-01) as a naive forecast of the next print. · target 3.2 · bls.gov
  • Missed Previous CES payrolls monthly change 206 thousand (as of 2024-02-01) as a naive forecast of the next print. · target +206 · bls.gov
  • Missed Previous CPI-U 12-month percent change 3.5 percent (as of 2024-03-01) as a naive forecast of the next print. · target 3.5 · bls.gov
  • Missed Previous CES payrolls monthly change 228 thousand (as of 2024-03-01) as a naive forecast of the next print. · target +228 · bls.gov
  • Missed Previous CPI-U 12-month percent change 3.4 percent (as of 2024-04-01) as a naive forecast of the next print. · target 3.4 · bls.gov
  • Missed Previous CES payrolls monthly change 64 thousand (as of 2024-04-01) as a naive forecast of the next print. · target +64 · bls.gov
  • Missed Previous CPI-U 12-month percent change 3.3 percent (as of 2024-05-01) as a naive forecast of the next print. · target 3.3 · bls.gov
  • Missed Previous CES payrolls monthly change 78 thousand (as of 2024-05-01) as a naive forecast of the next print. · target +78 · bls.gov
  • Missed Previous CPI-U 12-month percent change 3 percent (as of 2024-06-01) as a naive forecast of the next print. · target 3.0 · bls.gov
  • Missed Previous CES payrolls monthly change 87 thousand (as of 2024-06-01) as a naive forecast of the next print. · target +87 · bls.gov
  • Missed Previous CPI-U 12-month percent change 2.9 percent (as of 2024-07-01) as a naive forecast of the next print. · target 2.9 · bls.gov
  • Missed Previous CES payrolls monthly change 53 thousand (as of 2024-07-01) as a naive forecast of the next print. · target +53 · bls.gov
  • Missed Previous CPI-U 12-month percent change 2.5 percent (as of 2024-08-01) as a naive forecast of the next print. · target 2.5 · bls.gov
  • Missed Previous CES payrolls monthly change 9 thousand (as of 2024-08-01) as a naive forecast of the next print. · target +9 · bls.gov
  • Missed Previous CPI-U 12-month percent change 2.4 percent (as of 2024-09-01) as a naive forecast of the next print. · target 2.4 · bls.gov
  • Missed Previous CES payrolls monthly change 155 thousand (as of 2024-09-01) as a naive forecast of the next print. · target +155 · bls.gov
  • Missed Previous CPI-U 12-month percent change 2.6 percent (as of 2024-10-01) as a naive forecast of the next print. · target 2.6 · bls.gov
  • Missed Previous CES payrolls monthly change 33 thousand (as of 2024-10-01) as a naive forecast of the next print. · target +33 · bls.gov
  • Missed Previous CPI-U 12-month percent change 2.7 percent (as of 2024-11-01) as a naive forecast of the next print. · target 2.7 · bls.gov
  • Missed Previous CES payrolls monthly change 134 thousand (as of 2024-11-01) as a naive forecast of the next print. · target +134 · bls.gov
  • Missed Previous CPI-U 12-month percent change 2.9 percent (as of 2024-12-01) as a naive forecast of the next print. · target 2.9 · bls.gov
  • Missed Previous CES payrolls monthly change 237 thousand (as of 2024-12-01) as a naive forecast of the next print. · target +237 · bls.gov
  • Missed Previous CPI-U 12-month percent change 3 percent (as of 2025-01-01) as a naive forecast of the next print. · target 3.0 · bls.gov
  • Missed Previous CES payrolls monthly change -48 thousand (as of 2025-01-01) as a naive forecast of the next print. · target -48 · bls.gov
  • Missed Previous CPI-U 12-month percent change 2.8 percent (as of 2025-02-01) as a naive forecast of the next print. · target 2.8 · bls.gov
  • Missed Previous CES payrolls monthly change 42 thousand (as of 2025-02-01) as a naive forecast of the next print. · target +42 · bls.gov
  • Missed Previous CPI-U 12-month percent change 2.4 percent (as of 2025-03-01) as a naive forecast of the next print. · target 2.4 · bls.gov
  • Missed Previous CES payrolls monthly change 67 thousand (as of 2025-03-01) as a naive forecast of the next print. · target +67 · bls.gov
  • Missed Previous CPI-U 12-month percent change 2.3 percent (as of 2025-04-01) as a naive forecast of the next print. · target 2.3 · bls.gov
  • Missed Previous CES payrolls monthly change 108 thousand (as of 2025-04-01) as a naive forecast of the next print. · target +108 · bls.gov
  • Missed Previous CPI-U 12-month percent change 2.4 percent (as of 2025-05-01) as a naive forecast of the next print. · target 2.4 · bls.gov
  • Missed Previous CES payrolls monthly change 13 thousand (as of 2025-05-01) as a naive forecast of the next print. · target +13 · bls.gov
  • Correct Previous CPI-U 12-month percent change 2.7 percent (as of 2025-06-01) as a naive forecast of the next print. · target 2.7 · bls.gov
  • Missed Previous CES payrolls monthly change -20 thousand (as of 2025-06-01) as a naive forecast of the next print. · target -20 · bls.gov
  • Missed Previous CPI-U 12-month percent change 2.7 percent (as of 2025-07-01) as a naive forecast of the next print. · target 2.7 · bls.gov
  • Missed Previous CES payrolls monthly change 64 thousand (as of 2025-07-01) as a naive forecast of the next print. · target +64 · bls.gov
  • Missed Previous CPI-U 12-month percent change 2.9 percent (as of 2025-08-01) as a naive forecast of the next print. · target 2.9 · bls.gov
  • Missed Previous CES payrolls monthly change -70 thousand (as of 2025-08-01) as a naive forecast of the next print. · target -70 · bls.gov
  • Missed Previous CPI-U 12-month percent change 3 percent (as of 2025-09-01) as a naive forecast of the next print. · target 3.0 · bls.gov
  • Missed Previous CES payrolls monthly change 76 thousand (as of 2025-09-01) as a naive forecast of the next print. · target +76 · bls.gov
  • Missed Previous CES payrolls monthly change -140 thousand (as of 2025-10-01) as a naive forecast of the next print. · target -140 · bls.gov
  • Correct Previous CPI-U 12-month percent change 2.7 percent (as of 2025-11-01) as a naive forecast of the next print. · target 2.7 · bls.gov
  • Missed Previous CES payrolls monthly change 41 thousand (as of 2025-11-01) as a naive forecast of the next print. · target +41 · bls.gov
  • Missed Previous CPI-U 12-month percent change 2.7 percent (as of 2025-12-01) as a naive forecast of the next print. · target 2.7 · bls.gov
  • Missed Previous CES payrolls monthly change -17 thousand (as of 2025-12-01) as a naive forecast of the next print. · target -17 · bls.gov
  • Correct Previous CPI-U 12-month percent change 2.4 percent (as of 2026-01-01) as a naive forecast of the next print. · target 2.4 · bls.gov
  • Missed Previous CES payrolls monthly change 160 thousand (as of 2026-01-01) as a naive forecast of the next print. · target +160 · bls.gov
  • Missed Previous CPI-U 12-month percent change 2.4 percent (as of 2026-02-01) as a naive forecast of the next print. · target 2.4 · bls.gov
  • Missed Previous CES payrolls monthly change -156 thousand (as of 2026-02-01) as a naive forecast of the next print. · target -156 · bls.gov
  • Missed Previous CPI-U 12-month percent change 3.3 percent (as of 2026-03-01) as a naive forecast of the next print. · target 3.3 · bls.gov
  • Missed Previous CES payrolls monthly change 214 thousand (as of 2026-03-01) as a naive forecast of the next print. · target +214 · bls.gov
  • Missed Previous CPI-U 12-month percent change 3.8 percent (as of 2026-04-01) as a naive forecast of the next print. · target 3.8 · bls.gov
  • Missed Previous CES payrolls monthly change 148 thousand (as of 2026-04-01) as a naive forecast of the next print. · target +148 · bls.gov
  • Missed Previous CPI-U 12-month percent change 4.2 percent (as of 2026-05-01) as a naive forecast of the next print. · target 4.2 · bls.gov
  • Missed Previous CES payrolls monthly change 63 thousand (as of 2026-05-01) as a naive forecast of the next print. · target +63 · bls.gov
  • Missed Previous CPI-U 12-month percent change 3.5 percent (as of 2026-06-01) as a naive forecast of the next print. · target 3.5 · bls.gov
  • Missed Previous CES payrolls monthly change 20 thousand (as of 2026-06-01) as a naive forecast of the next print. · target +20 · bls.gov