OBR Forecast Evaluation

We keep score. We do not play. Official forecasts versus held Numbers. No hit-rate %.

Official forecast scoreboard hub · Methodology v0.1

Fewer than 20 expired scorable claims are held, so this page does not publish a hit rate.

12

Correct / missed / open counts. No hit-rate %.

0 correct 0 missed 12 open

By topic

  • US Interest Rates

    0 correct 0 missed 12 open

SCORING RECORD

Methodology v0.1 uses R1, R2, and R4. Full claim source URLs stay on this face.

assets.publishing.service.gov.ukOpen source

Read the scoring methodology · All officials

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Claims

  • Open OBR June 2026 Forecast Evaluation: real GDP growth Forecast (one-year ahead) is 1.1603 percent. · target 1.16 · assets.publishing.service.gov.uk
  • Open OBR June 2026 Forecast Evaluation: real GDP growth Forecast (two-year ahead) is 2.109 percent. · target 2.11 · assets.publishing.service.gov.uk
  • Open OBR June 2026 Forecast Evaluation: real GDP growth Forecast (five-year ahead) is 1.9944 percent. · target 1.99 · assets.publishing.service.gov.uk
  • Open OBR June 2026 Forecast Evaluation: CPI inflation Forecast (one-year ahead) is 1.55 percent. · target 1.55 · assets.publishing.service.gov.uk
  • Open OBR June 2026 Forecast Evaluation: CPI inflation Forecast (two-year ahead) is 0.6092 percent. · target 0.61 · assets.publishing.service.gov.uk
  • Open OBR June 2026 Forecast Evaluation: CPI inflation Forecast (five-year ahead) is 2.0251 percent. · target 2.03 · assets.publishing.service.gov.uk
  • Open OBR June 2026 Forecast Evaluation: nominal earnings growth Forecast (one-year ahead) is 3.0615 percent. · target 3.06 · assets.publishing.service.gov.uk
  • Open OBR June 2026 Forecast Evaluation: nominal earnings growth Forecast (two-year ahead) is 1.6606 percent. · target 1.66 · assets.publishing.service.gov.uk
  • Open OBR June 2026 Forecast Evaluation: nominal earnings growth Forecast (five-year ahead) is 3.2458 percent. · target 3.25 · assets.publishing.service.gov.uk
  • Open OBR June 2026 Forecast Evaluation: public sector net borrowing Forecast (one-year ahead) is 2.9729 percent of GDP. · target 2.97 · assets.publishing.service.gov.uk
  • Open OBR June 2026 Forecast Evaluation: public sector net borrowing Forecast (two-year ahead) is 2.9106 percent of GDP. · target 2.91 · assets.publishing.service.gov.uk
  • Open OBR June 2026 Forecast Evaluation: public sector net borrowing Forecast (five-year ahead) is 3.9697 percent of GDP. · target 3.97 · assets.publishing.service.gov.uk

What this is

A scorekeeper for official forecasts we already hold as Numbers: FOMC SEP, the previous CPI and payroll prints versus the realized prints, and EIA STEO versus EIA surveys. We keep score. We do not play.

What this is not

  • Not a news extractor, dual-model claim pipeline, or TrackRecord forecast.
  • Not analyst gold, WTI, or Bitcoin targets.
  • Not a hit-rate ranking when fewer than 20 expired scorable claims are held.

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