CBO Economic Outlook

We keep score. We do not play. Official forecasts versus held Numbers. No hit-rate %.

Official forecast scoreboard hub · Methodology v0.1

Fewer than 20 expired scorable claims are held, so this page does not publish a hit rate.

10

Correct / missed / open counts. No hit-rate %.

0 correct 0 missed 10 open

By topic

  • US Interest Rates

    0 correct 0 missed 10 open

SCORING RECORD

Methodology v0.1 uses R1, R2, and R4. Full claim source URLs stay on this face.

cbo.govOpen source

Read the scoring methodology · All officials

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Claims

  • Open February 2026 CBO Economic Outlook: United States real GDP growth (calendar year) for 2026 is 2.364 percent. · target 2.36 · cbo.gov
  • Open February 2026 CBO Economic Outlook: United States real GDP growth (calendar year) for 2027 is 1.861 percent. · target 1.86 · cbo.gov
  • Open February 2026 CBO Economic Outlook: United States CPI-U percentage change (calendar year) for 2026 is 2.924 percent. · target 2.92 · cbo.gov
  • Open February 2026 CBO Economic Outlook: United States CPI-U percentage change (calendar year) for 2027 is 2.547 percent. · target 2.55 · cbo.gov
  • Open February 2026 CBO Economic Outlook: United States core PCE price index percentage change (calendar year) for 2026 is 2.879 percent. · target 2.88 · cbo.gov
  • Open February 2026 CBO Economic Outlook: United States core PCE price index percentage change (calendar year) for 2027 is 2.444 percent. · target 2.44 · cbo.gov
  • Open February 2026 CBO Economic Outlook: United States unemployment rate (calendar year) for 2026 is 4.556 percent. · target 4.56 · cbo.gov
  • Open February 2026 CBO Economic Outlook: United States unemployment rate (calendar year) for 2027 is 4.535 percent. · target 4.54 · cbo.gov
  • Open February 2026 CBO Economic Outlook: United States federal funds rate (calendar year) for 2026 is 3.452 percent. · target 3.45 · cbo.gov
  • Open February 2026 CBO Economic Outlook: United States federal funds rate (calendar year) for 2027 is 3.389 percent. · target 3.39 · cbo.gov

What this is

A scorekeeper for official forecasts we already hold as Numbers: FOMC SEP, the previous CPI and payroll prints versus the realized prints, and EIA STEO versus EIA surveys. We keep score. We do not play.

What this is not

  • Not a news extractor, dual-model claim pipeline, or TrackRecord forecast.
  • Not analyst gold, WTI, or Bitcoin targets.
  • Not a hit-rate ranking when fewer than 20 expired scorable claims are held.

via TrackRecord

via TrackRecord