Official Forecast Scoreboard

We keep score. We do not play. Official forecasts versus held Numbers. No hit-rate %.

Browse by official below. Per-topic scoreboards: US Interest Rates · US Inflation · US Employment · US Retail Gasoline and Inventories

This page does not publish a hit rate. A percentage is withheld until legal review of the public copy (methodology v0.1).

285

FOMC SEP

32 correct 93 missed 160 open

Open FOMC SEP scoreboard · Correct / missed / open counts. No hit-rate %.

SCORING RECORD

Methodology v0.1 uses R1, R2, and R4. Full claim source URLs stay on this face.

federalreserve.govOpen source
federalreserve.govOpen source
federalreserve.govOpen source
federalreserve.govOpen source
federalreserve.govOpen source
federalreserve.govOpen source
federalreserve.govOpen source
federalreserve.govOpen source
federalreserve.govOpen source
federalreserve.govOpen source
federalreserve.govOpen source
federalreserve.govOpen source
federalreserve.govOpen source
federalreserve.govOpen source
federalreserve.govOpen source
federalreserve.govOpen source
federalreserve.govOpen source
federalreserve.govOpen source
federalreserve.govOpen source
federalreserve.govOpen source
federalreserve.govOpen source
federalreserve.govOpen source
federalreserve.govOpen source
federalreserve.govOpen source
federalreserve.govOpen source
federalreserve.govOpen source
federalreserve.govOpen source
federalreserve.govOpen source
federalreserve.govOpen source
federalreserve.govOpen source
federalreserve.govOpen source
federalreserve.govOpen source
federalreserve.govOpen source
federalreserve.govOpen source
federalreserve.govOpen source
federalreserve.govOpen source
federalreserve.govOpen source
federalreserve.govOpen source
federalreserve.govOpen source
federalreserve.govOpen source

Read the scoring methodology · Full org scoreboard

via TrackRecord

2

EIA STEO

1 correct 0 missed 1 open

Open EIA STEO scoreboard · Correct / missed / open counts. No hit-rate %.

SCORING RECORD

Methodology v0.1 uses R1, R2, and R4. Full claim source URLs stay on this face.

eia.govOpen source

Read the scoring methodology · Full org scoreboard

via TrackRecord

0

BLS previous print

0 correct 0 missed 0 open

Open BLS previous print scoreboard · Correct / missed / open counts. No hit-rate %.

SCORING RECORD

Methodology v0.1 uses R1, R2, and R4. Flip back here for official claim URLs.

Read the scoring methodology · Full org scoreboard

via TrackRecord

12

IMF WEO

0 correct 0 missed 12 open

Open IMF WEO scoreboard · Correct / missed / open counts. No hit-rate %.

SCORING RECORD

Methodology v0.1 uses R1, R2, and R4. Full claim source URLs stay on this face.

imf.orgOpen source

Read the scoring methodology · Full org scoreboard

via TrackRecord

8

OECD Economic Outlook

0 correct 0 missed 8 open

Open OECD Economic Outlook scoreboard · Correct / missed / open counts. No hit-rate %.

SCORING RECORD

Methodology v0.1 uses R1, R2, and R4. Full claim source URLs stay on this face.

oecd.orgOpen source

Read the scoring methodology · Full org scoreboard

via TrackRecord

32

ECB SPF

0 correct 0 missed 32 open

Open ECB SPF scoreboard · Correct / missed / open counts. No hit-rate %.

SCORING RECORD

Methodology v0.1 uses R1, R2, and R4. Full claim source URLs stay on this face.

data.ecb.europa.euOpen source

Read the scoring methodology · Full org scoreboard

via TrackRecord

10

CBO Economic Outlook

0 correct 0 missed 10 open

Open CBO Economic Outlook scoreboard · Correct / missed / open counts. No hit-rate %.

SCORING RECORD

Methodology v0.1 uses R1, R2, and R4. Full claim source URLs stay on this face.

cbo.govOpen source

Read the scoring methodology · Full org scoreboard

via TrackRecord

3

NY Fed SCE

0 correct 0 missed 3 open

Open NY Fed SCE scoreboard · Correct / missed / open counts. No hit-rate %.

SCORING RECORD

Methodology v0.1 uses R1, R2, and R4. Full claim source URLs stay on this face.

newyorkfed.orgOpen source

Read the scoring methodology · Full org scoreboard

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5

BCB Focus

0 correct 0 missed 5 open

Open BCB Focus scoreboard · Correct / missed / open counts. No hit-rate %.

SCORING RECORD

Methodology v0.1 uses R1, R2, and R4. Full claim source URLs stay on this face.

olinda.bcb.gov.brOpen source

Read the scoring methodology · Full org scoreboard

via TrackRecord

3

USDA WASDE

0 correct 0 missed 3 open

Open USDA WASDE scoreboard · Correct / missed / open counts. No hit-rate %.

SCORING RECORD

Methodology v0.1 uses R1, R2, and R4. Full claim source URLs stay on this face.

usda.govOpen source

Read the scoring methodology · Full org scoreboard

via TrackRecord

3

GACC / SCIO official narrative

0 correct 0 missed 3 open

Open GACC / SCIO official narrative scoreboard · Correct / missed / open counts. No hit-rate %.

SCORING RECORD

Methodology v0.1 uses R1, R2, and R4. Full claim source URLs stay on this face.

english.customs.gov.cnOpen source

Read the scoring methodology · Full org scoreboard

via TrackRecord

2

OMB MSR / Budget

0 correct 0 missed 2 open

Open OMB MSR / Budget scoreboard · Correct / missed / open counts. No hit-rate %.

SCORING RECORD

Methodology v0.1 uses R1, R2, and R4. Full claim source URLs stay on this face.

whitehouse.govOpen source

Read the scoring methodology · Full org scoreboard

via TrackRecord

12

OBR Forecast Evaluation

0 correct 0 missed 12 open

Open OBR Forecast Evaluation scoreboard · Correct / missed / open counts. No hit-rate %.

SCORING RECORD

Methodology v0.1 uses R1, R2, and R4. Full claim source URLs stay on this face.

assets.publishing.service.gov.ukOpen source

Read the scoring methodology · Full org scoreboard

via TrackRecord

12

EC AMECO

0 correct 0 missed 12 open

Open EC AMECO scoreboard · Correct / missed / open counts. No hit-rate %.

SCORING RECORD

Methodology v0.1 uses R1, R2, and R4. Full claim source URLs stay on this face.

ec.europa.euOpen source

Read the scoring methodology · Full org scoreboard

via TrackRecord

Official forecasts versus held Numbers. A claim stays open when the horizon is unreached or the matching official outcome is not held — we do not invent a hit rate. STEO is scored only against EIA-878 retail gasoline and WPSR survey inventories, never against WTI or Brent price columns.

What this is

A scorekeeper for official forecasts we already hold as Numbers: FOMC SEP, the previous CPI and payroll prints versus the realized prints, and EIA STEO versus EIA surveys. We keep score. We do not play.

What this is not

  • Not a news extractor, dual-model claim pipeline, or TrackRecord forecast.
  • Not analyst gold, WTI, or Bitcoin targets.
  • Not a hit-rate ranking when fewer than 20 expired scorable claims are held.

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